From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers. ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
'I don't see any major setback for the Indian markets post the US Fed event.'
It is surprising that central bankers around the world have cautioned the US Federal Reserve against raising rates.
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, NTPC, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank and Reliance Industries were the major laggards. Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Nestle and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
'The problem is that the bubble may not only be in valuations, but also in investors' minds.'
Overseas fundraising by Indian firms is experiencing a robust revival in 2024, following a lacklustre 2023. This resurgence is primarily driven by strong demand for high-yield bonds from international investors amid improving liquidity conditions and reduced hedging costs. Indian companies raised ~32,619 crore through overseas bonds in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total amount raised via such instruments in the entire 2023, which stood at ~31,218 crore, according to PRIME Database. In comparison, ~45,237 crore was raised in 2022 and ~1.05 trillion was secured in 2021.
Investors' wealth plummeted by Rs 5.49 lakh crore on Friday as markets faced a massive correction tracking a weak trend in global peers and fresh foreign fund outflows. Falling for the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,017.23 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 81,183.93. During the day, it plunged 1,219.23 points or 1.48 per cent to 80,981.93.
'In the short term you keep your return expectations very, very low; in the medium term be prepared to invest and in the long term growth will come and your returns from stocks will be high.'
Foreign investors have continued selling in the Indian market, pulling out a massive Rs 85,790 crore (around $10.2 billion) from equities this month due to Chinese stimulus measures, attractive stock valuations, and the elevated pricing of domestic equities. October is turning into the worst-ever month in terms of foreign fund outflows. In March 2020, FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities.
Benchmark Sensex hit the historic 83,000 level for the first time on Thursday and the Nifty settled at a lifetime high after a rally in blue-chip shares, surge in global markets and foreign fund inflows. A sharp fag-end rally drove the 30-share BSE Sensex to the 83,000 level for the first time. The barometer surged 1,593.03 points or 1.95 per cent to hit its lifetime intra-day peak of 83,116.19 in the last hour of trade.
Foreign investors have poured Rs 57,359 crore into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in 2024, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI inflows are likely to remain robust, driven by global interest rate easing and India's strong fundamentals.
Years of unprecedented stimulus has left the Fed swollen with $4.5 trillion in bonds
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
With 7 per cent economic growth, India is not creating enough jobs as reflected by the number of applicants for vacant posts in some states, Reserve Bank's former governor Raghuram Rajan said and suggested the government needs to focus on promoting labour-intensive industries to generate employment. Rajan further said some Indians, especially those at upper level, are comfortable and have high incomes, but consumption growth from the lower half of the country has still not recovered to pre-pandemic level.
If the DMK is able to sustain the momentum until the assembly polls, the AIADMK especially and the PMK and possibly the infant TVK too would find it hard to sign up with the BJP, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
NTPC was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.44 per cent, followed by JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Steel. Bajaj Finance declined over 3 per cent. Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv, Adani Port and Asian Paints were the other laggards.
Equity markets will be driven by the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, analysts said. Moreover, equity benchmarks will also continue to be guided by foreign fund movement and trend in Brent crude oil, they added. "The global markets are looking nervous after the US inflation numbers, which have caused the dollar index to hover around 110," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. Now everyone is eyeing the outcome of the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
Among the Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards. Titan, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Nestle and Power Grid were the major gainers.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
Invest only if you wish to go overweight on the sector.
India was less directly affected by the Chinese stock market rout and yuan devaluation that battered currencies and markets in the region.
India has not been able to compete with countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net buyers of stocks in August. Domestic fund houses have continued to invest in stocks, propelled by the success of various new fund offers (NFOs) and strong flows into equity funds. MFs had purchased stocks worth more than Rs 8,300 crore until August 23, according to the data provided on the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) website. Jimmy Patel, MD and CEO at Quantum AMC, says: "The surge in equity investments by MFs is because of two key reasons. One, equity NFOs are getting a strong response from investors, and fund houses need to deploy that money in the markets.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
Corporate bond issuances fell by around 22 per cent in August, despite easing yields as issuers delayed raising funds awaiting the US Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates from this month. Corporates and financial institutions expect yields to fall further and borrowing costs to become cheaper, said market participants. The US Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in the 17-18 September meeting, marking the start of a downward interest rate cycle.
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